Midterm contests are hot in the least dense, almost exurban-like suburbs
To the north — Troy, Rochester, Rochester Hills. To the south, Downriver. In either space, voters are searching for familiar language & cultural signals that speak most to them.
When the 2020 presidential race was gaining steam that summer, the suburbs came into the spotlight. Then-President Trump tried to gin up fear that if he lost the election, crime and low housing prices would creep into these residential areas.
He was wrong about the diagnosis — there was never a clear line between high home values and low crime and the president’s policies. But Trump was correct about where he should be targeting voters for their support. And what was true then remains true today. The suburbs — particularly the least dense suburbs, more tightly knitted to exurban sprawl — are places midterm candidates should be focusing on as well.
In Michigan, these areas include southern Detroit suburbs of Downriver (within Wayne County) and the northern ones of Troy, Rochester Hills and Rochester (within Oakland County). For opposite reasons, these spaces are ones where voters are still somewhat up for grabs, and are generally shifting from left to right or the inverse. They’re places where traditionally Democratic voters have been trending toward the Trumpian side of the Republican Party or where Republican voters are finding those same Trumpian instincts distasteful.
Many are searching for a political home, feeling lost with the cultural changes in either party, and are seeking language, rhetoric and an emotional frequency that matches their own. Their votes may not be linearly angled toward the policies that will materially benefit them, but they will be trying to situate themselves within a group, or broad identity, that accepts them and appears most familiar.
Watching the north…
Oakland County has long time been a stronghold for Republicans. It was only in the recent 2018 gubernatorial and 2020 presidential elections where the county has begun swinging in Democrats favor, in part because the area is filled with highly educated residents who are favoring the latter party.
They county has solidly shifted blue, but there are still places within it where old-time Republicans — think: wealthier, whiter and older residents — are voting in that direction and haven’t quite left their old affiliation. Interestingly, some of these country club Republicans flipped to support now-President Joe Biden. But their votes, for the near future, are up for grabs.
One of these slippery areas is Rochester Hills. While the Oakland County commission has now shifted to a majority Democrats, one seat — where Rochester Hills lies — was narrowly won by a Republican. The city also voted in favor of Donald Trump, despite later electing a Democratic state senator and Joe Biden into office in 2022.
Neighboring Troy is in a very similar, shifting boat as it still struggles to hold onto its Republican-leaning ties. Both its city council and mayor are Republicans. And Troy barely got a majority (less than a few percentage points) of support for Hilary Clinton before the Blue Wave also voted Biden into office in 2020.
These voters — both in Troy and Rochester Hills — remain gettable for either side. They are a bit more wary of Trumpian politics and particularly the rhetoric that follows. Their politics are conservative enough to not want higher taxes (or approve of labor unions), but liberal enough to want access to abortion (the true test being the upcoming Proposal 3 ballot measure).
As Oakland County Republican political strategist Dennis Darnoi said recently, Oakland County cities like Rochester, Rochester Hills and Novi used to consistently vote Republican and now “could go for either party” depending on the election cycle.
… And the south
Downriver politics are similar but for reasons that point in the opposite direction.
Traditionally blue-collar, pro-labor union Democrats, the cities that stretch south of Detroit into the Monroe area appreciate Trump’s brand of conservativism. They’ve been moving in his direction, which was made obvious by 2016. A number of Downriver cities, including Trenton, Wyandotte, and Brownstown Township all voted in favor of Trump that year.
But their politics haven’t changed much economically — they would likely still support unions, higher minimum wages and a more stable manufacturing sector. But like we’ve seen in whiter, economically depreciated areas across the country, people are fed up with failing infrastructure, stagnating wages, fewer growth opportunities, and a feeling like their representatives aren’t listening to them. And for that, they’ve often shifted to a political culture of grievance and often explicit racism.
Nonetheless, these places remain swing districts because they, in addition to being traditionally Democrat-leaning (a majority of voters in each town went for Democrats in the 2018 state election, and most of them supported Biden in 2020), they still care about the same bread and butter issues, and haven’t completely left the party.
This is the case for much of the most distanced suburbs. Their politics are changing with the changing times and haven’t settled on either party. They are seeking a political home to identify with, and that can be as nebulous as the political coalitions forming or the people trying most ardently to win their vote.
